Chris Mason: Rishi Sunak’s authority on the line over Rwanda vote

Invited to Downing Street for breakfast.

Wooed in person, wooed over the phone, wooed over the airwaves.

The government is embarking on a persuasion job, the like of which we’ve not seen since Rishi Sunak became prime minister.

MPs are being tracked down physically – to make sure they are around to vote later.

And MPs are being tracked down politically – to make sure ministers know how they’re intending to vote.

About 20 MPs have been invited in to Number 10 first thing for some cornflakes or perhaps something even more alluring.

Senior government figures are adamant, for now at least, that the vote will definitely go ahead.

One option – if they’re staring defeat in the face – would be to cancel the vote. That would be an admission of defeat – and doom-laden for the prime minister’s authority – but less bad from his perspective than an actual defeat.

But no, I am told by multiple senior figures, pulling the vote will not happen.

They know the government’s majority will be squeezed – some Conservative MPs will abstain or vote against – but they reckon they will win.

One Tory insider reckons north of 20 of their colleagues will rebel.

Were that number to vote against, rather than abstain, things would be getting mighty tight for the government.

And rebels reckons they have the numbers to defeat the government.

And that is why every vote counts.

The Conservatives have been courting Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party. Would they lend them a hand?

The DUP are keeping their powder dry for now, seeing what leverage they may be able to extract.

And MPs on the International Development Committee have missed out on a trip to the Caribbean of all places.

The visit was cancelled because government whips refused to grant permission for MPs to miss Tuesday’s vote.

Jeopardy is in the air at Westminster, even if the MPs’ plane to Barbados isn’t.

The government’s Rwanda plan and Rishi Sunak’s authority are on the line.