Drakeford resignation: Who will be Wales’ next first minister?

It was coming, but very few people expected it to be today – even many Labour Senedd members.

On a Senedd balcony on Wednesday morning, Mark Drakeford confirmed that he would be gone by March.

He didn’t say it on the balcony, but confirmed in an interview later that the general election did come into his thinking – and that people in Wales should know who might end up working alongside the next prime minister.

And thoughts also now turn to who will take over.

There are two early front runners – Economy Minister Vaughan Gething and the Education Minister Jeremy Miles – but they have been facing difficulties of their own.

Mr Gething faces another grilling at the Covid inquiry in the spring over his previous role as health minister – he had a tough time of it earlier this year.

Mr Miles had to defend the Welsh government’s record as recently as last week after poor Pisa results and post-pandemic attendance in schools.

Either would represent a first for Welsh politics – Mr Gething would be the first black politician to lead the country, while Mr Miles would be its first openly gay first minister.

Eluned Morgan, the current health minister, should not be discounted as she has run before – and if successful would be the first female Welsh first minister.

But she has had been beset by problems not just with record waiting lists but also the troubled Betsi Cadwaladr health board in north Wales.

Some on the left of the party are touting Hannah Blythyn, deputy minister for social partnership; and on the same wing is Counsel General (Welsh government chief legal advisor) Mick Antoniw.

And throw the name of Rebecca Evans into the mix. Wales’ finance minister will certainly have an increased public profile before Christmas when she publishes the Welsh government’s draft budget next week – although the indications are it’ll be thin gruel.

Welsh Labour meet on Wednesday evening to discuss how the leadership campaign will proceed.

It is thought that candidates will need nominations from Senedd members or a combination of Senedd members, constituency Labour Parties and/or affiliates to get onto the ballot paper, with the final numbers to be confirmed.

And when things have calmed down (a bit) after today, off it goes again.

Next up – the Welsh budget, with public services braced for cuts.

Whatever materialises will be announced on Mark Drakeford’s watch, but with most of the consequences felt by his successor.

Popularity is a fickle friend for politicians. It would have been hard to believe during the dark days of Covid that something else might steal the limelight.

But Mr Drakeford could just as easily be remembered for the new law making 20mph the default speed limit on most roads that were previously 30mph.

In that interview he was adamant – the “right policy” he said. Other countries were now following Wales’ lead. Perhaps more provocatively, he said that people would look back and ask “whatever was the fuss about”.

The 20mph speed limit was just one step on a difficult journey in 2023 – stubbornly high waiting lists, “crisis cuts” to keep trains running and the NHS going, criticism of the child poverty strategy, poor international Pisa assessment results in schools and strained relations with UK Labour.

Sir Keir Starmer declined to repeat his assertion – made in 2022 – that Welsh Labour was his “blueprint for power.” And he had more than one opportunity to repeat it.