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There is a survivor elation vibe to the Liberal Democrats. <\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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Eight years on from their near death experience after the years of coalition government with the Conservatives, they’ve rediscovered their mojo. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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And they know precisely who they are targeting, and where: the Tories, primarily in the south west and south east of England.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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It is this more focused tilt at seats they hope to be winnable that gives the Lib Dems an outsized influence on the political psyche. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Yes, they are possessed of 15 MPs – just 2.3% of Parliament’s total – but a string of by-election victories over the Conservatives has given dozens of Tories a blast of the heebie-jeebies. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Oratorical arithmetic doesn’t tell you everything about a political leader’s approach, but sometimes it can tell you rather a lot.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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By my reckoning Ed Davey referred to the Conservatives 27 times in his party conference speech here in Bournemouth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Mentions of Labour? Just three.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n- Follow live<\/li>\n
- Lib Dems pledge two-month cancer treatment guarantee<\/li>\n
- Lib Dems drop pledge to raise income tax<\/li>\n
- Who is Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Senior party figures describe their last general election campaign and performance as a “fiasco”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The party got 3.7 million votes, an 11.5% share, and 11 seats, one fewer than in 2017.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Sir Ed’s critique has long been that the party spread itself way too thinly at the 2019 election, when his predecessor Jo Swinson talked of winning hundreds of seats.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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To win seats under Westminster’s so-called first-past-the-post system, parties need geographically concentrated areas of support, not a smattering of votes in lots of places.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Breadth – driven by hubris – is now seen as an enemy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The party won’t publicly confirm how many seats it is focusing on at the next general election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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But expect it to be in the ballpark of 30 to 40.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Recent council elections and by-elections have tempted party strategists to increase the number, but they do so with the shadow of 2019 loitering on their shoulder.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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With a political focus on the Conservatives, and a geographical focus on plenty of places that voted for Leave in the EU referendum, the Lib Dem comfort foods of old are off the menu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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And little wonder: given their targeting, little wonder the Lib Dem leadership is not vociferously focused on bashing Brexit and putting up taxes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The party’s long-standing commitment to putting a penny on income tax has been lobbed off Bournemouth Pier. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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And while some activists here are desperate for the party to be far more full-blooded in its condemnation of Brexit, the leadership are allergic to the idea, detecting little appetite to focus on it from those they seek to woo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Instead, there will be a relentless focus on the NHS, the cost of living and sewage in rivers and the sea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The messaging will no doubt be tweaked from one place to the next, but these are seen as the touchstone issues in the places that matter for the Lib Dems.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Party staff are well aware of the observation of the elections guru Professor Sir John Curtice – who has pointed out that opinion polls suggest the Liberal Democrat national share of the vote remains glued at pretty much the same level it was at the last general election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Their approach – their hope – is that this shouldn’t matter, if they maintain that targeted geographical and political focus on the places they can actually win.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Let’s see.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The challenge they face is assembling the muscle to campaign in 30 to 40 places at the same time – rather different from throwing the entire resources of the party at a single by-election campaign.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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