{"id":1503,"date":"2024-01-21T08:35:32","date_gmt":"2024-01-21T08:35:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/laura-kuenssberg-why-is-humza-yousaf-predicting-inevitable-keir-starmer-victory\/"},"modified":"2024-01-21T08:35:32","modified_gmt":"2024-01-21T08:35:32","slug":"laura-kuenssberg-why-is-humza-yousaf-predicting-inevitable-keir-starmer-victory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/laura-kuenssberg-why-is-humza-yousaf-predicting-inevitable-keir-starmer-victory\/","title":{"rendered":"Laura Kuenssberg: Why is Humza Yousaf predicting ‘inevitable’ Keir Starmer victory?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Laura Kuenssberg: Why is Humza Yousaf predicting ‘inevitable’ Keir Starmer victory?<\/p>\n

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\"Laura<\/picture><\/span>Getty Images<\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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By Laura Kuenssberg<\/div>\n
Presenter, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Something strange is happening in part of the UK. <\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Normally, when we ask politicians who they think will win an election they are performatively shy. “Ooh, I couldn’t possibly say,” or, “You should know far better than to ask before a single vote has been cast, Laura!” <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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But there is one prominent politician who claims to know the outcome of the upcoming general election. They say it’s “inevitable” that Sir Keir Starmer will be the next PM – and they’re not even in the Labour Party.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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You voters are a volatile bunch and polling suggests swathes of the public are yet to make up their minds. So what is exactly is the First Minister of Scotland, Humza Yousaf, up to when he proclaims so confidently that Starmer will reach Downing Street – and that the Labour leader “doesn’t need Scotland” in order to do it? <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The great polling guru Sir John Curtice tells me that, as thing stands, Yousaf is technically right. Based on current numbers, Labour does not have to win dozens of seats in Scotland to get back into power. “Frankly the Labour Party at the moment is going to go walkies without needing to do particularly well” with Scottish voters, he says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Yet at the risk of sounding like a broken record: the election is miles away. Polls are polls, not elections. Nearly all MPs privately believe the polls will narrow when we get to the campaign proper (although this too is not inevitable). Labour needs an epic swing to get a majority even of one, and Scotland’s 57 seats might be utterly crucial.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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In 2019 the SNP’s dominance in Scotland was absolute – the biggest party by miles for the third general election in a row. The SNP took 48 seats while Labour managed only one. Now there is a real fight between them for first place with the possibility, as things stand, they end up with roughly the same number. You read those numbers right: the SNP could lose about half their seats. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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What the first minister is really trying to say to voters, according to a senior SNP MP, is: “Don’t worry about getting rid of the Tories – that’s going to happen anyway.” <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Yousaf’s challenge is to make the SNP relevant in a UK-wide argument about generational change – and to draw voters into thinking about what Sir Keir Starmer, as prime minister, would actually do for Scotland on big issues such as public spending and an independence referendum.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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  • The best and worst year of Humza Yousaf’s career<\/li>\n
  • A shift in tone as the SNP gears up for election – BBC News<\/li>\n
  • Labour need record swing to win general election<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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    But another SNP MP says there is “anger and dismay” at the argument Yousaf is making to voters, which they describe as “all over the place”. You can see and listen to Yousaf try to explain it on the show. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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    You can also expect the party in the coming days and weeks to try to lure Labour into a fight on their terms, the senior MP says: “I want to see him come north and onto our territory.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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    Fights about the pitch to the public don’t mask the enormous changes that have taken place before our eyes to one of the biggest political forces. The SNP approaches the general election as a completely different outfit to last time around, and that makes the job of convincing voters to stick with them difficult, whatever the message. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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    Their decline in the polls is partly because voters didn’t like seeing the party’s divisions and disagreements during its leadership campaign after Nicola Sturgeon quit. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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    But the position had already changed before those messy few months, because Tory disasters under Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss prompted some softer Scottish unionists to shift to Labour. The Conservative crash under Liz Truss made it look much more likely that Labour could win a majority – and by implication the SNP lost its potential leverage in the event of a hung parliament.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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