{"id":2095,"date":"2024-06-16T16:22:22","date_gmt":"2024-06-16T16:22:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/what-does-nigel-farage-really-want\/"},"modified":"2024-06-16T16:22:22","modified_gmt":"2024-06-16T16:22:22","slug":"what-does-nigel-farage-really-want","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/what-does-nigel-farage-really-want\/","title":{"rendered":"What does Nigel Farage really want?"},"content":{"rendered":"

What does Nigel Farage really want?<\/p>\n

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\"Laura<\/div>\n

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Laura Kuenssberg<\/div>\n
Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg<\/div>\n
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“Farage no more wants responsibility than he wants a vegan cigarette,” a long-serving, maybe long-suffering, Brexit campaigner tells me. But the Reform UK leader\u2019s longer-term aim appears to be to smash the Tory Party to bits.<\/b><\/p>\n

An exasperated senior Conservative says: “It\u2019s all about him, full of anger and problems. Zero solutions.”<\/p>\n

But why is a man who has failed to get elected to Parliament seven times causing panic in Tory ranks? Why has a small party become the headline grabber?<\/p>\n

This week, a much anticipated “crossover moment” arrived \u2013 albeit in a single poll, which put Reform UK one percentage point ahead of the Conservatives. Other polls have Rishi Sunak\u2019s party still ahead.<\/p>\n

Even if the first poll was right, it does not mean Reform are on course for more MPs than the Tories.<\/p>\n

The most optimistic Reform politicians can\u2019t name more than five or six seats where they reckon they could win. In that best-case scenario, they would have fewer than one in 100 MPs \u2013 tiny in Westminster terms.<\/p>\n

But as polls suggest, Reform could have a big impact by guzzling up many of the Conservatives\u2019 traditional supporters, making it harder for Tory candidates to hang on.<\/p>\n

To give a hypothetical example, if Labour is trying to close a gap of 6,000 votes on the Tories, and 3,000 people who voted Tory last time instead opt for Reform, that\u2019s 3,000 fewer votes Labour has to find to win.<\/p>\n

Across the country, Reform could win 10%-20% of the vote in hundreds of seats \u2013 not enough to win those seats, but the hit to the Tories could be huge, which is why senior Conservatives have begun shouting about the risk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Sign up for the Off Air with Laura K newsletter to get Laura Kuenssberg’s expert insight and insider stories every week, emailed directly to you.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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How has this happened?<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Privately, Conservatives have been worried about the risk from Reform for many months.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why many of their early campaign offers were designed to appeal to voters who might have been Reform-curious: older, socially conservative, and naturally capital-C Conservatives.<\/p>\n

National service, protecting pensions, and the prime minister\u2019s famous promise to \u201cstop the boats\u201d.<\/p>\n

Voters planning to back Reform overwhelmingly point to immigration as their main reason, according to research from the polling group, More in Common. Immigration, refugees and Brexit are cited far ahead of admiration for Nigel Farage – or dislike of Sir Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak.<\/p>\n

But one senior Reform figure says they are gaining support because of a much broader feeling of frustration. \u201cEverybody feels a lot poorer. They are terrified of being unwell [because] you can\u2019t see a GP, and people are furious about the levels of legal and illegal immigration.\u201d<\/p>\n

In other words, they say, it\u2019s a protest vote, mainly by people who voted Conservative in 2019. But not exclusively – Reform also hope to make a dent in some of Labour\u2019s traditional vote.<\/p>\n

Some ministers believe Rishi Sunak has played into Mr Farage\u2019s hands. \u201cDon\u2019t draw attention to things you can\u2019t fix\u201d like illegal migration, one cabinet minister told me. <\/p>\n

Others think vowing to \u201cstop the boats\u201d without more radical action, like leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, has made the problem much worse – hot rhetoric, tepid policy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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          Guess who and what is back<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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          The real frustration for some Conservatives about what\u2019s happening is that it\u2019s happening again.<\/p>\n

          Nigel Farage referenced this in an online video, grinning along to Eminem, taunting the Tories with the lyric, \u201cGuess who\u2019s back?\u201d<\/p>\n

          His party was the most successful in the UK\u2019s European elections under the UKIP label in 2014, spooking David Cameron. He stormed them again with the Brexit Party in 2019, hastening Theresa May\u2019s departure from No 10.<\/p>\n

          Most memorable of all was his role in pushing for, and then helping to win, the Brexit referendum \u2013 even though the official Vote Leave campaign wanted nothing to do with him at the time.<\/p>\n

          For the Conservatives, dealing with the right is not a new dilemma and the arguments over how to handle it are familiar.<\/p>\n

          Do you face the political danger and appeal to the right, leaving Reform as little space as possible? Or stick the flag squarely in the middle and not give their arguments any oxygen?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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