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Chris Mason<\/span>Political editor<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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PA Media<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n\n
Amid the blizzard of nocturnal numbers any by-election generates, three stand out in Caerphilly this morning.<\/p>\n
Labour, so long the victor of so many a south Wales political contest, humbled, pummelled, crushed – attracting just 11% of voters.<\/p>\n
The Conservatives, so often the victor of many a UK-wide election – 2%.<\/p>\n
Yes, you read that right – the two big beasts of Westminster politics managed just 13% of the vote between them.<\/p>\n
Just one in seven voters backed either Labour or the Conservatives, which is extraordinary.<\/p>\n
This contest, for weeks, was instead a race between an outfit, Reform UK, which barely existed a few years back and another, Plaid Cymru – until now the perpetual bridesmaid in contests in Caerphilly.<\/p>\n
Between them, Plaid and Reform attracted 83% of the vote \u2013 and Plaid beat Nigel Farage’s party easily.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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As so often in election contests, there is a striking human story that illustrates the wider picture.<\/p>\n
Today’s victor, Lindsay Whittle, a Plaid Cymru councillor for nearly half a century, told me he remembers standing in the crowds in Caerphilly in 1968 as a 15-year-old new recruit to the party.<\/p>\n
The party, then, came pretty close to toppling Labour in a Westminster by election.<\/p>\n
But here is the thing: they didn’t, they were second.<\/p>\n
Defeat at Labour’s hands was something Whittle was to get very used to – he has stood for election to Westminster ten times, and stood repeatedly for election to Cardiff Bay too. He had always lost – until now. <\/p>\n
Now in his 70s, he tastes victory for the first time.<\/p>\n
Speaking to senior Plaid figures, they detect – and have for some time – a sense that the tide may finally be going out for Labour in Wales.<\/p>\n
They are determined to capitalise and allow themselves to dream of governing Wales, at least as the main party, after next May’s Senedd elections across the nation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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So, what next for Reform? A solid second place with 36% of the vote, is a solid performance for an upstart, but insurgencies remain insurgent by winning \u2013 and they were easily beaten. <\/p>\n
It is clearly not easy for them to be the first choice “none of the above” alternative to Labour and the Conservatives when there is another party also claiming that mantle.<\/p>\n
That is a challenge for them in Wales, as it is in Scotland with the SNP, in a way that it isn’t in England.<\/p>\n
And then there are the consequences for Labour.<\/p>\n
Labour’s heritage in these parts includes some of the most consequential names in its long history: founding father Keir Hardie, NHS founder Nye Bevan, former leaders Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock.<\/p>\n
This morning, the prospect for Labour of heavy defeat across Wales next May – ending 27 years of continuous devolved power – looks more likely than ever.<\/p>\n
And the questions for the Prime Minister pile up higher.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Published at Fri, 24 Oct 2025 06:49:48 +0000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Chris Mason: Extraordinary Caerphilly by-election humbles Westminster’s big beasts 48 minutes ago Chris MasonPolitical editor PA Media Amid the blizzard of nocturnal numbers any by-election generates, three stand out in Caerphilly this morning. Labour, so long the victor of so many a south Wales political contest, humbled, pummelled, crushed – attracting just 11% of voters.… Continue reading Chris Mason: Extraordinary Caerphilly by-election humbles Westminster’s big beasts<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4078,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uk-politics","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4077"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4077\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/260web.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}