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Some in Labour’s ranks believe Burnham is planning for an early election, with party HQ recently launching “operation second term”, to beef up its campaigning and organising strength.<\/p>\n
Burnham does not have to call an election until August 2029 – but going to the country early – perhaps as early as next spring – could deliver him a mandate of his own and free him from the constraints of Sir Keir Starmer’s 2024 manifesto.<\/p>\n
Recent polling has suggested that a “Burnham bounce” is real, though not dramatic. <\/p>\n
The party has moved from just under 20% in the polls at the end of the Starmer era to around the mid-twenties now.<\/p>\n
Ipsos puts its standing as high as 28%, while YouGov registers a more modest 23%. <\/p>\n
Labour strategists will be pleased that Reform UK’s share \u2013 21% in YouGov – is the lowest since January 2025, and that Nigel Farage’s party is now neck-and-neck with Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives. <\/p>\n
One Labour insider told me that Burnham is happy to see a resilient Badenoch, as this blunts Reform support and could point to a split vote on the right at an election. <\/p>\n
And new research from YouGov suggests that at the all important constituency level, 63-68% of Lib Dem and Green voters would tactically vote for Labour to stop Reform UK winning their seat. <\/p>\n
Burnham of course also faces a challenge on the left. <\/p>\n
How much of a threat Zack Polanski’s Greens can be in some traditional Labour seats will be tested in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election just a week after the Labour conference concludes.<\/p>\n
Downing Street insists that an early election is not being planned. <\/p>\n
To say anything else, though, would be to repeat the uncertainty of Gordon Brown’s early months in No 10 when election speculation wasn’t doused – and had become so rife that he was reputationally damaged when he decided not to go to the polls.<\/p>\n
But some who have been in regular touch with No 10 tell me they have seen no serious signs that an early election is in the offing. <\/p>\n
Burnham appears determined to give his government enough time in office to present tangible achievements to a sceptical electorate. <\/p>\n
And with Labour still well below the 34% vote share it captured in 2024, many Labour MPs will be pushing the PM not to cut and run.<\/p>\n
So don’t expect the centre point of Burnham’s conference speech to be a message to his MPs to go back to their constituencies and prepare for a loss of some of their seats. <\/p>\n
But equally don’t expect election speculation to subside at this conference.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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